A Strategic Brief for the Industry
The $15 Billion
Question
How American Horse Racing Reclaims Its Future
ALLCHALK.AI
Confidential · 2026
The Starting Gate
Racing Once Owned American Gambling.
Before the sportsbook app. Before the casino floor. Before the scratch ticket.
American horse racing was the game — and it funded itself from every dollar wagered.
$15.18B
Peak US wagering handle · 2003
75+
Active US racetracks in 2000
#1
Gambling vertical in the US for most of the 20th century
The sport didn't just survive on passion. It survived because it was the only legal wagering game in town — built to capture every dollar bet, from every bettor, at every track.
Source: Equibase Economic Indicators · The Jockey Club Historical Data
The Decline
Twenty Years of Erosion.
US Thoroughbred Handle ($B) · Nominal
▲ PASPA repealed 2018
−57.3%
Real decline in handle since 2003 peak
45
Racetracks closed since 2000
4th
Consecutive year of decline (2025)
In 2025, fewer races were run in the US than at any time since the Eisenhower administration.
Source: Equibase Economic Indicators (Jan 2026) · BloodHorse · Past The Wire Macro Analysis (Jan 2026)
The Demographic Reality
The Customer Base Is Aging Out.
Who Is Betting Horses Today
Over age 56
45%
Age 35–55
43%
Under 34
12%
The generation raised on FanDuel represents just 12% of today's horseplayers. They expect fixed odds. They will not learn pari-mutuel.
The Competition,
By the Numbers
By the Numbers
NY mobile sportsbooks — weekly handle
$500M+ per week
All US thoroughbred handle — October 2024
$868M entire month
New York sports betting alone outpaces all of US racing in under two weeks.
Sources: Journal of Marketing Development · Covers.com (Jan 2025) · NYRA legislative testimony (Nov 2025)
The Structural Problem
The Game Is Rigged Against Retail.
Computer-Assisted Wagering has fundamentally broken the economics of participation.
Retail Bettor
20%+
Effective takeout on every dollar wagered
✗No rebates of any kind
✗No direct data feed access
✗Prices move before the gate opens
VS
CAW Operator
5–9%
Effective takeout — after negotiated rebates
✓Up to 13% rebate per dollar wagered
✓Direct real-time data feeds
✓Profitable even on losing bets
Non-CAW handle has fallen 64% in real terms since 2003. The retail player didn't lose interest. The math stopped working for them.
Source: Kentucky Lantern (Oct 2025) · BloodHorse / Elite Turf Club (Oct 2025) · TDN Anatomy of a Deal (Dec 2025)
The Paradox
Racing Has the Best Business Model in Gambling. And Is Losing.
Horse Racing
✓ Owns its content entirely
✓ Captures every wagering dollar directly
✓ 35 years of centralized data via Equibase
✓ Funds purses from the sport itself
✓ Unique, unscripted product every day
And still losing handle every year.
VS
Sports Betting
✗ Owns no content
✗ Pays leagues nothing for NFL / NBA
✗ No proprietary data advantage
✗ 4–6% margin on straight bets
✗ Fixed on events they don't control
And winning. Every quarter.
This is not an existential problem. It is an execution problem.
The Solution Is Simple
Bettors Want Three Things.
Fixed Odds Delivers All of Them.
Fixed Odds Delivers All of Them.
👁️
Transparency
Know the house edge before you bet. No opacity. No fine print discovered at the window.
⚖️
A Fair Price
The odds you see when you click are the odds you get. Every sportsbook bettor takes this for granted.
🏆
Confidence
Bet knowing your price can't be moved against you in the final seconds by algorithmic money you can't see.
A generation raised on fixed-odds sports betting will not learn pari-mutuel wagering. The sport must come to them.
Source: NYRA legislative testimony (Nov 2025) · Harness Racing Update (Dec 2025) · Covers.com
The Proof of Concept
The Playbook Already Exists.
Australia
Fixed odds mainstream for 30+ years
Prize money
Doubled in 7–10 years post fixed-odds adoption
TAB model
Track-owned operator captures the full value chain
Retail bettors
Stayed engaged — transparency drove confidence and volume
"There is a real opportunity for the U.S. horseracing market to grow like it has in Australia, which has seen prize money levels double over the past 7–10 years."— BetMakers CEO Todd Buckingham
US Momentum — Now
Fixed odds moving through state legislatures
✓
New Jersey
Legalized 2021 · BetMakers live at Monmouth
✓
Colorado
Legalized · Bet365 live since Feb 2024
✓
West Virginia
Legalized April 2025
✓
Louisiana
Legislation advancing — 2025 session
✓
New York
NYRA-backed bill active in legislature
Source: BettingUSA (Feb 2026) · Covers.com · Harness Racing Update (Dec 2025) · BetMakers CEO (2022 NHBPA)
Why Now — And Not Before
Fixed Odds in Racing Was Impossible.
Until It Wasn't.
Until It Wasn't.
Pricing a single horse race requires simultaneously weighting 12+ interdependent variables — in real time, every race day, every track, every season.
Speed Figures
Trainer Win %
Jockey Statistics
Track Conditions
Distance & Surface
Class Level
Pace Scenario
Equipment Changes
Late Scratches
Historical Patterns
Weather Impact
Post Position Bias
The AI Breakthrough
Modern machine learning — trained on hundreds of thousands of historical races — can ingest every variable above in real time, produce calibrated win probabilities, and update dynamically as new information arrives. This was computationally impossible at commercial scale before 2020.
The data to build this engine has existed for decades. The technology to unlock it just arrived.
Source: GlobalRacing.com AI Analysis · IEEE Spectrum AutoML Study · EquinEdge Machine Learning Handicapping
The Unfair Advantage
Equibase Is Sitting On the Most Valuable
Dataset in American Sport.
Dataset in American Sport.
Founded
1990 · Jockey Club (33%) + TRA/tracks (67%)
Sole Data Provider
To Daily Racing Form since 1998
Historical Depth
Speed figures, trainer/jockey stats, track variants — back to 1976
EQUIBASE
1976 → Today
Every race.
Every track.
Every variable.
Every track.
Every variable.
35+
years of racing data
Official Supplier To
Breeders' Cup · DRF · FanDuel Racing · NTRA · The Jockey Club
Dividends
Annual distributions to track partners — shared financial stake in outcomes
AI Readiness
Structured historical database — the perfect training corpus for ML pricing models
Equibase was founded to put racing data back in the hands of the industry. AllChalk has already proven that vision works — on 10 years of your data. The full 35 years changes everything.
Source: Equibase.com Company History · The Jockey Club · BloodHorse Annual Reporting
The Product Revolution
From Price-Taker to Market Maker.
For the first time in the history of the sport, the track controls the product end to end.
01
On-Site Fixed Odds — Full Margin Capture
The track offers fixed odds at the window. Bettor gets a locked price. Track keeps 100% of the margin. No pool dilution. No tote company cut. No CAW gaming the final seconds.
The track becomes its own bookmaker on its own product. This has never been possible before because no one could price it accurately in real time.
The track becomes its own bookmaker on its own product. This has never been possible before because no one could price it accurately in real time.
$10 on Horse 3 at 5-1. That's your price. Confirmed. No surprises at the window.
02
Tiered Distribution — The Track Sets the Price
Instead of begging for simulcast fees, the track now sells a priced product and sets the terms.
TwinSpires gets odds at X margin. TVG at Y margin. FanDuel Racing at Z margin. The track has leverage over ADWs for the first time in the sport's history. They want access to your races — now they pay for it on your terms.
TwinSpires gets odds at X margin. TVG at Y margin. FanDuel Racing at Z margin. The track has leverage over ADWs for the first time in the sport's history. They want access to your races — now they pay for it on your terms.
Track to ADW: "You can distribute our fixed odds product. Here are the terms. Take it or leave it."
03
Custom Exotic Construction — Any Bet, Priced in Real Time
This is the sportsbook killer. Same-game parlays are the fastest-growing, highest-margin product in sports betting. Racing has never offered them — until now.
With a probability engine, you can price any combination the bettor can construct.
With a probability engine, you can price any combination the bettor can construct.
"Parlay Race 1, 5, 7 & 9 — priced instantly."
"Double on Race 2 & 8 — no problem."
"3-leg same-race parlay in Race 6 — done."
"Double on Race 2 & 8 — no problem."
"3-leg same-race parlay in Race 6 — done."
The AI probability engine is the infrastructure that makes all three possible simultaneously.
Source: AllChalk.ai probability modeling infrastructure · Fixed-odds regulatory framework analysis
The Partnership
We Don't Just Have the Vision.
We Have the Engine.
We Have the Engine.
AllChalk has been quietly building the AI probability infrastructure this vision requires. Here's what we bring to the table — and what we need from Equibase.
We Organize Your Data
We know this because we've already done it. AllChalk is built on Equibase data — 10 years of it. It took nearly a year of intensive work to clean, normalize, and make it ML-ready.
Equibase has 35 years. The methodology is proven. The process is repeatable. We're not pitching a hypothesis — we're offering to finish a job we already started.
Equibase has 35 years. The methodology is proven. The process is repeatable. We're not pitching a hypothesis — we're offering to finish a job we already started.
We Build the Models
AllChalk already has a working probability model — trained on 10 years of Equibase data. We know what it can do with a decade of history. We know exactly what it will do with three and a half decades.
The model is backtested, validated, and live. Give us the full dataset and the pricing engine becomes exponentially more accurate.
The model is backtested, validated, and live. Give us the full dataset and the pricing engine becomes exponentially more accurate.
We Power the Product
The output is a real-time pricing API that any operator — track, ADW, sportsbook — can call before each race.
On-site fixed odds. Tiered ADW distribution. Custom exotic construction. All three products run off the same engine. One integration. Infinite product possibilities.
On-site fixed odds. Tiered ADW distribution. Custom exotic construction. All three products run off the same engine. One integration. Infinite product possibilities.
Equibase brings: 35 years of data + industry relationships + regulatory access. | AllChalk brings: A proven methodology (we already cleaned 10 years of your data) + a live working model + product architecture. | Together: The full stack — and a head start nobody else has.
AllChalk.ai — probability infrastructure for thoroughbred racing
The Economic Case
Lower Takeout. Smarter Pricing. Higher Total Revenue.
Lower Takeout → More Bettors
Recreational players return when the price is fair and visible. Volume replaces margin.
AI Pricing → Yield Optimization
Dynamic margin per horse, per race — not a blunt 18% on everything. Like airline revenue management.
Fixed Odds → CAW Neutralized
No pari-mutuel pool to game. Late-money manipulation disappears entirely.
Better Economics → Better Sport
More handle funds better purses, better horses, better product. The virtuous cycle restarts.
Airlines don't charge every seat the same price. Revenue yield management saved the industry. Racing needs the same transformation.
The technology is ready.
The regulatory momentum is building.
The data has always been here.
ALLCHALK.AI
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